Zee Beam News

20 January 2005 13:32 - Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Moscow
BBC Monitoring Russia has been losing its positions in the post-Soviet area because of incompetent Kremlin spin doctors who tend to choose wrong allies to support. If this trend continues, Russia will find itself in a political predicament and this may affect the pace of its domestic reforms, argues Alla Yazkova, senior research associate at the Institute for International Economic and Political Studies. The following is the text of report headlined "Foreign-policy botch-work. Russia continues to play dangerous games in post-Soviet area" by Russian newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta on 18 January; subheadings have been inserted editorially: The new year 2005 promises a series of fresh surprises in the post-Soviet area.

Moldova
The parliamentary election in Moldova is scheduled for March. Moldova's approach to the solution of many foreign-policy problems including the character of its relations with Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia and its decision to either retain its neutrality or step up the policy of Euro-Atlantic integration will depend on the future alignment of political forces.
It is necessary to look for ways to settle the Dniester Region conflict. If the election in Moldova takes place amid the same political sentiments that brought to power the liberal opposition in neighbouring Romania, Chisinau will even more actively insist on the observance of the decisions of the 1999 Istanbul summit, the elimination of Russia's military presence, and the bringing of an international peacekeeping contingent into the conflict zone. Tiraspol will respond to this with the further toughening of its stance. In this case Russia, which has rendered active support for the Dniester Region's separatist regime over the past decade, will face equally difficult problems in the region as the ones it encountered in Abkhazia or even more difficult ones.

Armenia
Hotspots in the former Soviet territory appear more and more often due to the former elites' inability or unwillingness to take into account the growing trends to establish democratic norms in politics and society. In April, the Armenian opposition will celebrate the second anniversary of the adoption of the resolution on holding a referendum of confidence in President Robert Kocharyan in view of the doubtful results of the vote on his candidacy in the 2003 presidential election. The opposition's attempts to implement this decision was suppressed by the security structures in April 2004. All the indications are that the same scenario will be repeated this year also. Armenia is subject to growing international pressure due to the lack of constructive steps to settle the Nagornyy Karabakh problem and liberate the occupied regions of Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, in defiance of obvious logic Russia relies on the Kocharyan regime and renders it substantial support including in the military sphere. It is for this very reason that, according to representatives of the opposition gaining strength, Moscow is dramatically losing its influence and prestige in Armenian society.

Central Asia
Growing negative sentiments in relations with Moscow do not always lie on the surface, but exist both in the policy of the Central Asian leaders and that of Belarusian Old Man Lukashenka. The CIS is becoming increasingly reminiscent of a kind of discussion club, whereas the projects promoted within the framework of this organization are hardly feasible, as attested by attempts to form the Single Economic Area comprising Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

GUUAM
It cannot be ruled out that associations such as GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Moldova) can step up their activities based on specific common interests as a counterweight to this structure. In addition, most CIS countries become increasingly oriented towards the outer world and in this situation Moscow's persisting illusions and the lack of strategy based on existing reality cause dangerous mistakes.
More and more often sensitive spots on post-Soviet territory crop up due to the Russian political elite's inability or unwillingness to take into account the growing trends to establish democratic norms in politics and society.

Ukraine
Ukraine - the country where a globally unprecedented campaign to support a pro-Kremlin candidate was waged during the presidential election - proved to be the weakest link in the Kremlin's strategy and tactics last year. In Gleb Pavlovskiy's opinion, Russia "insufficiently participated in Ukrainian affairs;" meanwhile, it can specifically be reproached for its excessively active attempts to preserve the Soviet-type regime it controlled. Nor did it hesitate to fan separatist sentiments in the Russian-speaking southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. However, the Kremlin spin doctors proved unable to professionally cope even with this task and failed to get to the bottom of interclan disagreements or comprehend the distinguishing traits of Ukraine's national mentality, which were vividly demonstrated at the turn of generations. Therefore, the reputable German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine assessed the results of "aggressive intervention" on the part of the Russian "advisers'" as "foreign-policy botch-work."
Abkhazia
Russia's interference in the election process in Abkhazia at all its stages was even more primitive. By getting involved in the purely internal and, in essence, illegitimate election process in the self-proclaimed republic Russia can suffer major losses in the long run, for it placed the interests of its own and foreign clan structures above its national interests. So far, this interference substantially weakened Russia's positions not only in Abkhazia itself, but also in Russia's relations with Tbilisi. If Russia aspires to become a civilized democratic country maintaining normal relations with its neighbours, it will sooner or later have to give up support for separatism including in Abkhazia. The sooner this happens, the better.

International organizations
The experience of Russian policy in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine also exposed the threat of Russia's increasing sliding towards geopolitical opposition and in a number of cases confrontation with the Euro-Atlantic structures (the EU and NATO) and in the long run, also with the United States.
How come Moscow, which worked so hard to strengthen its positions in the West, is wasting everything in confrontation which cannot bring it any dividends anyway? It is, indeed, difficult to imagine a situation where Russia, acting in line with political logic, would consider it worthwhile to simultaneously worsen relations with the EU, OSCE, NATO and in the long run, also with the United States. Apparently, the temperature of Russia's relations with the West dropped to its lowest level since the Cold War during the Ukrainian crisis. Will Russia, left on its own, be able to withstand even "lukewarm confrontation" with the rest of the world? And how can this affect the continuation of the policy of domestic reforms?
Particularly since the post-Soviet states ever more actively choose the European direction for their development, which gives food for thought.