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Chapter One: "Great Expectations." In the early post-Cold War days, Russians hoped for a new Marshall Plan, whereby Western businesses and institutions would give direct support to Russian industries. Often, these rusting enterprises held cherished names and/or were vital to the well-being of their surrounding communities. The West was expected to help modernize them and to welcome Russia into institutions such as the G8, EU, WTO and so on.
Western businesses hoped to gain access to the markets and resources of the former Soviet Union and to find an almost instant market economy with a recognizable banking system, Western-style management, the rule of law and protection of shareholders' rights.
Chapter Two: "Hard Times." The old naiveti on both sides is clear to us today. Both parties received bruises; while Russia lacked a coherent strategy for reorganizing its industrial base, Western triumphalism often rubbed salt in the wounds of the humiliations that Russia felt in the 1990s. This led to mutual suspicion.
But not all the news was bad. Successful relationships were established and Russian businesses grew (some into global players in their sectors). Today, significant reforms have taken place, while signs of growth in the SME sector are finally evident. So in pointing out what remains to be done, we should not downplay what has already been achieved.
Chapter Three: "A Tale of Two Cities." The wishes of both Moscow and the West remain similar. But the naivete has gone, along with some of the initial enthusiasm for cooperation. Recent developments have fuelled concern over the future of private investment in Russia.
Moscow needs to establish an environment in which legitimate business can proceed without undue friction. The banking sector should be modernized and placed under competent regulatory oversight. The state has recently reasserted its direct role in business, at least in the area of "strategic resources." But what is the best role of the state - to manage state-run enterprises, or to create a healthy environment for FDI and local investment? Also, Moscow needs to understand the public relations disasters created by threatening to tear up the licenses of foreign investors and the way the Yukos case has played out in the Western media.
The West has to recognize that "the State is back." In emerging markets like Russia, business needs to work properly with what there is and to influence what can be changed - and not just wait for ideal conditions.
Chapter Four: "Bleak House." There are several threats to the developing relationship. Above all, the current political system offers stability, but it increasingly feels like a pyramid standing on its head. When stability balances on such a narrow base, it can deteriorate rapidly should the base shift or disappear.
Confidence could suffer if the rule of law cannot be established, if investors cannot rely on agreements with the state and if bureaucratic interference (as opposed to proper regulation) makes life difficult. Investors could lose interest in Russia. I spend much of my time encouraging businesses to look at opportunities here. But they have other options. Businesses that find Russia too difficult may simply give up - and perhaps go to nearby China, with its sometimes more enterprising approach to working with foreign investors.
Finally, oil wealth can be a curse as well as a blessing. If oil prices were to fall, Russia would be left exposed. The key is to raise living standards while establishing economic diversity.
Epilogue: "Our Mutual Friend." Russia is still developing - economically, politically and socially. This makes it an exciting, but difficult place to be. Many changes are still needed, and problems will occur. But for now, the state is back and business has to get on with it.
A former ambassador to Moscow used to say how tired he got of hearing that "Russia is a very rich country." In fact, most of its citizens are poor by Western standards and the scale of the economy is on par with Portugal. What Russia does have are large amounts of natural resources - albeit mostly in places that make extraction difficult.
Will Russia become a market economy with a democratic system, or a kleptocracy inhabited by disenfranchised and nihilistic citizens? When I first started to work in Russia some 15 years ago, I used to say that it would take at least one generation, and more realistically two, for Russia and the West to understand each other. I still believe that the first post-Soviet generation must take charge before we will see what Russia has become.
According to a proverb, a pessimist tells you that things cannot possibly get any worse, while an optimist assures you that they most certainly can. By this definition, I am neither a pessimist nor an optimist about Russia.
We should take a long-term, historical perspective. Maybe our grandchildren will meet to discuss how the dream of European integration - like the dream of a Soviet utopia before it - led to a similarly bloated, corrupt and unaccountable bureaucracy, which enslaved its citizens and pampered its nomenklatura. Perhaps, as "dissidents," they will hold such meetings in secret - or perhaps in a free Russia?

Lord Cromwell, director of The Russo-British Chamber of Commerce, has worked as a consultant in Russia on parliamentary, public-sector and economic reform since 1990. He contributed this comment, based on his remarks at a Wilton Park conference in the UK, to Russia Profile.