Thursday, February 03, 2005
VELVET REVOLUTIONS IN THE CIS - WHO'S NEXT?
MOSCOW (RIA Novosti commentator Arseny Oganesyan) The recent velvet revolutions in former Soviet republics prompt one to stop and think about how the region will develop politically. According to the director of the Center for Current Politics, Konstantin Simonov, the United States and Western Europe want to see a wave of triumphant orange revolutions throughout the CIS. At present, Central Asian countries, primarily Kyrgyzstan, Kazakstan and Uzbekistan, are the most vulnerable to political cataclysms. In addition, these countries are the most attractive in geopolitical terms, especially considering the political instability in the Middle East and a potential conflict around Iran. The ruling elites in the above-mentioned countries no doubt realize the fragility of their power. This sense of tension might have a positive effect on the situation in Central Asia in general. Alexei Malashenko, an expert at the Moscow Carnegie Center, believes it will. He says the leaders of these countries, especially Kyrgyzstan, "are trying to intercept the idea of democratization and the creation of a civil society." In other words, any initiative to modernize the current political regime will come from the authorities, which maintain a progressive position, realize the inevitability of changes, and so on and so forth. However, Mr. Malashenko believes the leadership of these countries will seek "to preserve their authority by all means. If it is not the current president, then, at least, it must be his family, or preferably the entire clan." Nevertheless, that the existing regimes will be forced, one way or another, to adapt to the changing situation should be regarded as a positive development for the region. Meanwhile, the general opinion of the experts asked by this RIA Novosti commentator is that "orange revolutions" may lead to the inevitable disintegration of Central Asian countries, primarily Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, because of theirethnic diversity. "If we are talking about Turkmenistan," says the director of the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, Alexander Sharavin, "I would be very pleased to witness a 'velvet revolution' there, although, so far, there are no objective grounds for such an event in that country. All the civilized opposition has been trampled down and eliminated there. But if Taliban-type radicals were to come to power, it would only make the situation worse." As to Kyrgyzstan, Mr. Sharavin believes "it would be wrong, even from a liberal point of view, to claim that the success of a 'velvet revolution' might have a positive effect on the situation in that country." "Although Akayev's regime bears certain signs of authoritarianism," he continues, "they are totally justified, considering the presence of extremist forces in the country that tend to use force to oppose the government." In addition, it should not be forgotten that countries such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and, to a lesser degree, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, still have considerable Russian and Russian-speaking populations. In that sense, security in these countries means the security of our compatriots. "Russia does not want to conduct any experiments in these countries, including attempts to expedite the democratization process," the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, Yevgeny Kozhokin, comments. He says that this is not because Russia is against democracy, but because the introduction of poorly-developed models of democratization might lead to social and political crisis resulting in the substitution of secular regimes with Islamic regimes, possibly even fundamentalist regimes in these countries. "This danger exists throughout the entire Central Asian region," he concludes, "particularly in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan." Therefore, the road to stability in Central Asia must be traveled cautiously, through a gradual transition to rule of lawstates that might still bear the signs of authoritarian systems for a long time.
# posted by Deval : 9:24 AM
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