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Friday, May 05, 2006

The Enemy at the Gates

Photo: AP05-05-2006 Kommersant - by Mikhail Zygar -
Dick Cheney practically gives a new Fulton Speech
Ultimatum
At the "Common Vision for a Common Neighborhood" conference in Vilnius yesterday, U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney gave a programmatic speech on relations between the West and Russia. He criticized the Kremlin's domestic policy ad accused Moscow of "blackmail," "intimidation," "undermining the territorial integrity of its neighbors" and "interference in democratic processes." As the G8 summit in St. Petersburg approaches, Russia is being given the choice between "returning to democracy" and "becoming an enemy."
Until yesterday, the White House preferred to criticize Kremlin policies only through press secretaries. U.S. President George W. Bush and politicians close to him spoke of Russia as a reliable partner in the fight against international terrorism, even while admitting to certain disagreements. Cheney's Vilnius speech has broken that tradition and was the most pointed declaration by an American leader since the end of the Cold War.
The theme of the Cold War ran throughout Cheney's speech. That phrase, first spoken exactly 60 years ago by Winston Churchill at Fulton, was used by Cheney three times. He named the heroes of the Cold War who, in his opinion, made the greatest contributions to democracy: Andrey Sakharov, Lech Walesa, Vaclav Havel, Pope John Paul II, Natan Sharansky and Ronald Reagan. He mixed interspersed that list with the names of the "heroes of our time": Mikhail Saakashvili, Viktor Yushchenko and Alexander Milinkevich, the Belarusian opposition leader who is now jailed in Minsk. Cheney's words practically point to a renewal of the Cold War, only now the "front line" has changed. "The spread of democracy is irreversible. It is to the benefit of al and poses a threat to no one. The system that has provided hope on the shores of the Baltic Sea can bring hope to the shores of the Black Sea and even farther," Cheney said. "That which is applicable to Vilnius is applicable to Tbilisi and to Kiev, and it is applicable to Minsk and Moscow as well."
Mentioning Moscow and Minsk in this context, Cheney identified them as powers opposing democratic states. He then criticized Russian and Belarusian authorities. He spoke shortly but mercilessly about Belarus, saying the Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has earned the title of "last dictator of Europe." "There is no place in Europe for that kind of regime. The people of Belarus deserve better," the U.S. vice president said before turning his attention to Russia.
Cheney briefly listed the charges accumulated against Russia. First, the victories of recent decades are being scaled back as the authorities limit civil rights and the rights of the media, nongovernmental organizations and political parties. Cheney continued that Russia's policies are detrimental not only within the country but beyond it as well. "No one can justify actions that undermine the territorial integrity of a neighbor, or interfere with democratic movements. No legitimate interest is served when oil and gas become tools of intimidation or blackmail, either by supply manipulation or attempts to monopolize transportation," Cheney said.
Cheney's speech culminated in the assertion that Russia faces the choice of "returning to democracy" or "becoming an enemy." "There is no question that a return to democratic reform in Russia will generate further success for its people and greater respect among fellow nations," Cheney said. "None of us believes that Russia is fated to become an enemy." But it can be concluded from that statement that the likelihood of that happening is high.
The Baltic and Black Sea region leaders assembled at the conference applauded the U.S. vice president. The leaders of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, the Baltic countries, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia were present in Vilnius. Cheney's address to then practically identifies their countries as the "defensive wall" that separates the democratic West from potential hostile Russia. Cheney's speech was full of praise for the "new democracies." He thanked the "brave leaders" of the color revolutions for proposing the summit and noted the success of the Baltic states "one the provinces of an empire, ancient nations whose sovereignty was stolen" that were able to throw off imperial dictatorship and the command economy. He gave a rather lengthy description of democratic value, hinting that democracy is now being threatened, although without stating directly where that threat was coming from. "I don't think I have to mention what the alternative is [to democracy]. You have all seen it and lived through it." He went one to list centralized control, intimidation of political opponents, merciless corruption, ever-present violence, national decline, economic stagnation "that no rational person could want."
Cheney ended his speech by mentioning the July G8 summit in St. Petersburg. The leading developed countries will make it clear to Russia there that it has nothing to fear and can only win if there will be a "strong democratic state" within its borders. In other words, an answer is expected from Russia at the G8 summit about which of the two relationships with the West it has chosen. That is bad news for the Kremlin, which has grandiose political and propagandistic plans of its own for the summit.

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