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// Europe expects Dmitry Medvedev to liberalize Vladimir Putin’s line
Dmitry Medvedev’s debut in Europe
June 05, 2008 – Kommersant by Mikhail Zygar – Today Dmitry Medvedev starts his first visit to Europe as Russia’s President. In Berlin he will meet with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and deliver a keynote speech, which is expected to counterbalance the Munich speech of Vladimir Putin. The audience really hopes that the new President will declare his determination to liberalize Russia’s foreign policy. In view of that, Angela Merkel even prepared a couple of questions for Mr Medvedev. Those from the Christian Democratic Union (Angela Merkel’s party) say that she is going to ask whether the new Russian leader will overhaul Khodorkovsky’s case. European premiere In international practice the first visits of the President point to the priorities in a county’s policy. Germany ranks third on the list of the international preferences of Dmitry Medvedev and the current Russian authorities on the whole. Before setting off for Berlin, President Medvedev paid a visit to Kazakhstan (Russia’s most reliable CIS neighbor) and China (the key strategic partner). Germany (the least problematic EU partner) would have occupied a higher position unless Russia’s relations with the EU were less tense. For all that, Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to Germany is regarded his European première. The agenda of the visit consists of four main points: Talks with Chancellor Merkel, Head of the German Foreign Office Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and addressing politicians and businessmen. This speech of Berlin is the one they are looking forward to in Germany. Dmitry Medvedev is expected to take advantage of his first European address to make keynote statements regarding his foreign policy. Some one thousand politicians and businessmen will gather in Berlin’s Intercontinental hotel to listen to President Medvedev. Judging from the thorough preparation for the speech, this event might be as significant as Vladimir Putin’s Munich speech once was. But the rhetoric proper will be different, they expect. According to the information of Kommersant, the Russian President is likely to tackle the idea, now popular with the Russian government, that Europe must unite not only in the framework of the European Union, but without overriding the interests of those countries which do not have EU-membership (and Russia is a historical part of Europe). Another major point in Dmitry Medvedev’s address might be the idea that Russia won’t use its energy resources as a weapon and blackmail Europe with its oil and gas. Yesterday’s speech of the First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian government Igor Shuvalov at the Baltic summit in Riga was sort of a rehearsal of this part of the President’s address. Energy cooperation will evidently be highlighted during the negotiations between Dmitry Medvedev and Angela Merkel. Reminding her of his recent work at Gazprom, the Russian President might advise the Chancellor to allow the Russian gas monopoly to buy energy assets in Germany, rather than be afraid of it. In this case Berlin will become the major transit land and gas allocation center in Europe. Vladimir Putin repeatedly made such proposals to Angela Merkel, but so far she has been skeptical about Gazprom. Besides, Mr Medvedev is likely to remind her that the reform of the energy sector planned by the European Commission can prevent Gazprom from working in the EU, which will ensue an increase in energy carriers costs for European consumers. The President and the Chancellor will also touch upon the Nord Stream pipeline problems. Though it need be said that their views of the matter are practically the same. German embassies in the Baltic states as well as the BASF and E.ON companies have recently launched an information campaign that aims at improving the image of this project. Mr Medvedev and Ms Merkel are likely to discuss what else can be done to make Estonia, Sweden and Finland take back their objections to Nord Stream.
:: Khodorkovsky test :: Addressing Germany’s elite at the Intercontinental hotel, Dmitry Medvedev is likely to reiterate several of the theses from his previous speeches, which are quite popular in Germany. These include the supremacy of law, struggle against legal nihilism and the necessity of civil society. These issues are his strong points, and they will be welcomed with the audience. Germany’s mass media have stressed that ahead of his visit to Berlin Dmitry Medvedev spoke negatively of Shlegel’s amendment to the law on mass media, which means that it’s important for the Russian President to appear liberal in the view of Europeans. Interestingly, before the visit German officials and politicians would say that in the course of negotiations Angela Merkel will surely ask Dmitry Medvedev when he will move from words to deeds and start liberalizing Russia’s policy. Andreas Schockenhoff, the German government’s commissioner on Russian affairs, stated that Angela Merkel intends to call on Dmitry Medvedev to launch the reforms he mentioned before assuming the office of the President. “We must urge that he take concrete measures,” Mr Schockenhoff said (it need be emphasized that he is chairman of the CDU bloc in the German Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee). Moreover, according to the sources from the Chancellor’s circle, she is eager to suggest the Russian President a “liberal” test – that is remind him of the Khodorkovsky case. “If Medvedev is serious when he says that the state must be based on the rule of law, the Khodorkovsky case may be a good test for him,” MP and CDU/CSU Foreign Affairs Spokesman Eckhart von Klaeden stated. As is known, German Foreign Office Chief Frank-Walter Steinmeier doesn’t belong to Angela Merkel’s party – he is Gerhard Schroeder’s Social Democratic Party of Germany member. So he has always taken a different stance in relations with Russia – he has been a “kind policeman,” whereas Ms Merkel has been tough and fastidious. But recently Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who is reputed a likely rival of Angela Merkel in the next elections, has been more critical of Moscow than ever. More to the point, as he visited Russia in May, Mr Steinmeier, among other things, met with Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s lawyer Yury Shmidt. It can mean that the question concerning the ex-head of YUKOS can be raised throughout Dmitry Medvedev’s visit.
:: Georgian dispute :: The press-service of Chancellor Merkel reported that the key topics during the talks will include (besides the President’s pledges to reform the judicial system of Russia, and human rights and freedom of the press) the situation in the Balkans, and in Kosovo mainly. The Russian government has always linked the Kosovo matter with the problem of the former USSR’s breakaway republics. According to the information of Kommersant, in his Berlin speech Mr Medvedev can state that Russia opposes the practice of declaring independence unilaterally, and promise that Moscow won’t recognize self-proclaimed republics, at least unless some circumstances force it. The talks of Dmitry Medvedev and Angela Merkel featuring this topic can be rather unpleasant. The Chancellor will obviously remind the Russian President that Ukraine and Georgia were denied NATO membership action plan at the alliance’s summit in Bucharest. According to the sources with the German government, it was done in exchange for Russia’s promise to make the conflict with Georgia less tense. Now Angela Merkel can say that Moscow hasn’t fulfilled its commitments. As far back as April Germany, which is Coordinator of the so-called Group of Friends of the Secretary-General on Georgia, expressed its concerns over Russia establishing official contacts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia and called on Russia to cancel its decision. So, today Dmitry Medvedev will have to account to Angela Merkel for Vladimir Putin’s April order to change the format of relations with the two republics. Besides, the German Chancellor is likely to ask the Russian President about the deployment of Russia’s railroad construction troops in Abkhazia, which NATO’s leaders have officially opposed. Dmitry Medvedev will barely spend a day in Berlin, which won’t be longer than last week’s visit of Vladimir Putin to Paris. Nonetheless, the President won’t part with Angela Merkel for a long time: They’ll meet again at the G8 summit in Japan. Russia, which is a full-right G8 member, has been striving for joining the “financial 7” and reckons to get the admission at the present summit. But it is the distrust of the Russian rouble that prevents Russia from receiving this unofficial status. Moscow has been stating that it has reached the “financial 7” level, as it is an international donor. In Berlin Dmitry Medvedev must enlist Angela Merkel’s support to make his G8 debut impressive.