Zee Beam News

10/29/2008 MOSCOW - RIA Novosti world affairs commentator Ivan Zakharchenko - Next week Americans will face a difficult choice - they will cast their ballots for the candidate, who, in their view, will ensure enough jobs in the country, protect their bank accounts, and bring a sense of normalcy back to the government after George Bush's two disastrous terms. Other countries are following the U.S. election campaign to find out how the world order will change in its aftermath. Let us then examine what outcome on the other side of the Atlantic would be beneficial to Russia and Russian-U.S. relations in general. Russia's foreign policy strategy, approved by President Dmitry Medvedev on July 12, is different from the previous one, issued eight years ago. Although its principles - a pragmatic and multi-vector approach, as well as advancement of national interests in a non-confrontational manner - remain the same, experts point out that the strategy's wording is not as emphatic as it was before: no fear, no illusions, and no euphoria. For this reason, Moscow's reaction to the U.S. election is likely to lack emotional coloring as well. No matter who triumphs in the U.S. election - Barack Obama (D-IL) or John McCain (R-AZ) - Russia's cooperation with the U.S. will be based on equal rights and mutual interests. Aware of possible risks, Moscow is ready to face any developments. The same holds true for Russian-U.S. relations. Even if the new U.S. administration prefers not to have any relations at all with Russia, Moscow is ready for it. One hopes, however, that the outlook is not so gloomy. In fact, the situation appears paradoxical. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia and the U.S. no longer regard each other as adversaries; on the other hand, they have not become friends either, a fact that is evident during George Bush's time in office. The two countries are becoming less dependent on each other in many aspects; Moscow can even afford to abstain from debates with Americans about issues they might be keen on. Obviously, taking strategic stability interests into consideration, one can say that Russia has been historically linked with the U.S. However, the foundations of these relations are gradually shattering, as experts have noted many times. When they finally collapse, there will be nothing left to bind the two states. Nevertheless, Russia is unlikely to abandon its efforts to keep the positive potential it has accumulated in its relations with the U.S. It should be, though, that Moscow will only make prudent, pragmatic and reciprocal moves. It is reciprocity that should become the basis of international relations, and only time will tell if it does. Many people are alarmed by McCain's anti-Russian statements, namely his support of Russia's exclusion from the G8. One might conclude that his triumph bodes ill for Russian-U.S. relations, but it is important to keep in mind that presidential candidates often say things that voters expect or want them to say, rather than what they really believe. After winning, such people may change their tone and attitude. Strange as it might seem, there is a popular assumption that John McCain's victory would benefit Russia more than Barack Obama's coming to power. The thing is, under George Bush, Moscow and Washington agreed to draft a new bilateral Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, and confirmed their commitments for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Russia and the U.S. launched talks about the U.S. plan to deploy AMD elements in Poland and the Czech Republic, which raised concerns in Moscow. Should Democrats come to power, it might be that the parties will need to rebuild contacts. Moreover, it may happen that Democrats will pick on Russia even more, accusing it of violating human rights and relegating matters of strategic importance. Even if the McCain administration's stance toward Russia turns out to be more negative and biased than it is now, Moscow will always have the opportunity to point to the agreements reached with their predecessors, and thus seek their complete implementation. The current voting will be held against the backdrop of a snowballing global financial crisis. Russia and the U.S. have already expressed their eagerness to jointly confront new challenges, including international terrorism, drug trafficking, and climate change. The financial crunch gives both countries an opportunity to combine efforts with other states. Collective measures will be discussed on November 15 at an emergency G8 summit in the Washington D.C. area, with other major economic powers invited. The common struggles may bring Russia and the new U.S. administration closer, no matter who moves into the White House.